Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
