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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.