A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
